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Bitcoin’s New Era: Navigating Post-Cycle Investment Strategies

Bitcoin’s New Era: Navigating Post-Cycle Investment Strategies

Published:
2025-10-31 14:06:15
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In a significant paradigm shift for cryptocurrency markets, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle obsolete. The previously predictable boom-bust pattern tied to Bitcoin halving events has been fundamentally disrupted by global monetary policy interventions, preventing the anticipated post-halving market downturn that historically created bargain purchasing opportunities like those seen in 2022. This structural change eliminates the familiar cyclical buying windows that investors have relied upon for years, forcing a fundamental reassessment of investment strategies across the digital asset landscape. The new market reality demands a focus on projects demonstrating robust fundamental strength, tangible real-world adoption metrics, and currently discounted valuations relative to their potential. Hayes emphasizes that in this new environment, investors must identify assets capable of generating organic growth independent of Bitcoin's price movements, marking a departure from the previous era where most altcoins largely followed Bitcoin's cyclical patterns. This evolution in market dynamics suggests that successful cryptocurrency investing will increasingly resemble traditional equity analysis, requiring deeper due diligence into project fundamentals, technological innovation, team execution capabilities, and sustainable economic models. The declaration from such an influential figure as Hayes signals a maturation of cryptocurrency markets and suggests that the industry is moving beyond its previous speculative phase toward a more fundamentals-driven valuation framework. This transition presents both challenges and opportunities for investors who must now develop more sophisticated analytical frameworks to identify value in a market no longer governed by predictable cyclical patterns.

Best Crypto Currencies to Invest In Now That the 4-Year Cycle is 'Dead'

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, a revered voice in crypto, declared the traditional four-year boom-bust cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings obsolete. Global monetary policy has averted the expected post-halving downturn, leaving investors without a 2022-style bargain window. The new imperative: focus on projects with robust fundamentals, tangible adoption, and discounted valuations—assets capable of growth independent of Bitcoin's rhythm.

Digitap emerges as a case study in utility-driven design, merging crypto and fiat in a unified neobanking platform. Its sub-1% remittance fees undercut the 6.2% industry average, while Visa integration bridges digital and traditional spending. This convergence of accessibility and cost efficiency positions the project at the intersection of two accelerating trends: crypto adoption and fintech disruption.

Bitcoin’s On-Chain Strength Sets Stage for Fourth-Quarter Gains, Says ARK Invest

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, asserts that Bitcoin's fundamentals, adoption trends, and macro environment are aligning to support continued strength into the final months of 2025. The firm's latest "Bitcoin Quarterly" report highlights robust on-chain signals, with network activity, profitability levels, and supply distribution reflecting strong underlying demand.

Long-term holders show few signs of capitulation, while mid-sized investors are steadily accumulating positions. This dynamic, combined with a slowdown in large-holder selling, suggests a healthier rally structure than in previous cycles.

Institutional adoption is accelerating, marking a new milestone for Bitcoin's maturation. The report underscores the cryptocurrency's resilience and potential for sustained growth as it enters the fourth quarter.

Hargreaves Lansdown Cautions Against Bitcoin as Core Portfolio Asset Despite Offering Crypto Products

Hargreaves Lansdown, one of the UK's largest retail investment platforms, has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin's role in investment portfolios. The Bristol-based firm asserts that bitcoin 'is not an asset class' and lacks the intrinsic characteristics to justify inclusion as a core holding for growth or income.

The caution comes as the platform prepares to offer cryptocurrency products for the first time, following the Financial Conduct Authority's lifting of its four-year ban on crypto exchange-traded notes for retail investors. Hargreaves Lansdown emphasized Bitcoin's history of 'extreme losses' and the impossibility of reliable performance analysis.

The firm plans to implement a gradual rollout with strict safeguards, including detailed risk warnings and appropriateness assessments. Under FCA rules, qualifying clients will face a 10% portfolio cap on crypto exposure.

Bisq Easy Launches Android Beta for Decentralized Bitcoin Trading

Bisq Easy has rolled out its first public Beta for Android, version 0.1.1, bringing decentralized peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading to mobile users. The app, available via APK and the Google Play Store, leverages Tor for privacy and supports multiple languages. Built on the Bisq 2 Java library, the beta ensures full protocol compatibility, though sellers are advised that backup-and-restore functionality remains incomplete.

The launch marks a significant step in expanding access to non-custodial Bitcoin trading, emphasizing accessibility and security for retail participants. With notifications and multilingual support, Bisq Easy lowers barriers to entry in the P2P markets—a growing niche as regulatory scrutiny intensifies on centralized exchanges.

Cryptocurrency Stocks Surge Amid Bitcoin's Rally

October has ushered in strong gains for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing 7% month-to-date and 10% over the past 30 days. Market observers attribute the rally to heightened demand for alternative assets during the U.S. government shutdown, positioning crypto alongside gold as a potential SAFE haven.

Bullish (BLSH) leads the charge among crypto-linked equities, soaring 35% after launching institutional trading services and securing a banking partnership with Deutsche Bank. Meanwhile, MARA Holdings (MARA) has gained 30% as its Bitcoin mining operations expand, leveraging renewable energy and diversifying into AI infrastructure.

The outperformance of these stocks highlights how Leveraged plays on Bitcoin's momentum can eclipse the flagship cryptocurrency's returns. Yet the sector remains volatile—corporate treasury strategies and mining operations amplify both upside and risk.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Onchain Signals Point to Resilient Fundamentals Amid Volatility

Bitcoin hovers NEAR $111,700 after a 16% correction, yet ARK Invest's Q3 2025 report reveals underlying strength. The cryptocurrency closed the quarter above its short-term holder cost basis at $114,065—a historically bullish signal.

Network metrics underscore robustness: mining difficulty surged 21.7% quarterly and 61% annually to 611 EH/s, while daily miner revenue climbed 6.3% to $52.4 million. Transaction volume jumped 27.8% quarter-on-quarter, with illiquid supply growing 4.6% year-over-year to 14.3 million BTC—evidence of unwavering holder conviction.

Despite price fluctuations, 94.5% of BTC supply remains profitable. Institutional participation and macroeconomic tailwinds suggest potential upside through year-end.

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